Game thinking from Adam Clare

Tag: prediction

Predict the Future Using the Web

In the Foundation series author Isaac Asimov created the concept of Psychohistory which is the notion of using history to predict the future. This fictional science allows leaders to plan for the future in great detail as long as people (at large) are unaware of Psychohistory and that the number of people being studied is incredibly large.

Essentially, Psychohistory uses math, trend analysis, and systems thinking to work. All of those core necessities exist today and we’re already beginning to see companies try to emulate Psychohistory.

Presently there are 7 billion people on the planet and many of them are creating information. Collating and sifting through this information can be hard and overly complex, let alone knowing where to look. An online service, Recorded Future uses publicly accessible information on the web for its predictive power.

Right now the site seems to be good at collecting information and letting people play with it, but its predictive powers are essentially untested. Which raises an interesting question: how long must a tool like this be accurate for and in what fields for it to have credibility? Still, it should give you a strong idea of what the future holds for what you’re looking into.

What Recoded Future is doing is essentially cliodynamics which is a relatively new study that is similar to Asimov’s Pyschohistory. Wikipedia describes the concept: “Cliodynamics practitioners attempt to come to with mathematical models of history to explain “big history” – things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse.”

There is even a journal dedicated to cliodynamics aptly named Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History. The journal is open, wholly online, and free; they are accepting submissions to the journal if you’re interested.

Designing a Game for 2022

To random readers of this blog, this is a game design exercise that we’re currently trying.

Today Trevor Haldenby stopped by to talk all about the world of foresight analysis and a little bit about his experience at Earth Rangers. We all love thinking so let’s do that! Using the STEEP-V method to think about the world, you’ll have to think about a game for that world.

The world:






  • Governments rely on research (technological and biological) from for-profit entities (good reason for this, bad reason for this).
  • There is a lack of legislation on neural-implants. (Can anybody suggest a link for this?)


The challenge:
Make a game for the video game players of 2022. Describe your game and the world it takes place in through a 5-10min oral pitch.

The entire game from genre to platform are up to you, you can even design a game for a holographic gaming system. Things to cover:

  • Core game mechanic – what’s your hook?
  • Player demographics
  • Genre
  • Story
  • Multiplayer or not

Describe your world. The above talks about your game, but in order for people hearing your pitch they’ll have to understand the world you’re making the game for in addition to the above STEEP-V breakdown. Be prepared to defend your justifications for your world existing as you see it. Here are some suggestions as to what you should look at (it’s up to you to figure out what is relevant):

  • Think of polarities and extremes.
  • How do the points in the STEEP-V breakdown connect?
  • What are key differences in culture?
  • Is there new technology?
  • Did the occupy movement occupy Facebook?
  • What are the privacy concerns of 2022?
  • Have religious people banned video games?
  • Try backcasting! How did we get to the world described here?

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