Game thinking from Adam Clare

Author: Adam ClarePage 97 of 262

Two Developers on Indie Sales Figures and Free Promotions

Sales figures and how successful promotions are for indie games are hard to come by. As a result I really appreciate it when people take the time to write up and publish their numbers (and overall experience) from selling their games.

Hitbox Team who created Dustforce and they decided to share their success because they found that similar analysis is hard to get:

FINDING GAME SALES DATA IS NOTORIOUSLY HARD. Video games have traditionally been a “hits driven” industry – the majority of revenue for a publisher comes from a handful of big commercial successes. With so many non-hits being made, publishers try to keep sales numbers a trade secret, as the more disappointing figures can be worrisome to investors. This trend has made discussing sales figures an uncomfortable topic, akin to talking about your salary.

Their write up on Dustforce sales figures is absolutely brilliant and has nice graphs like this one. It’s worth the read.

With any luck, we’ll see more developers post their results. Even if a game didn’t work out as well as expected, sharing the numbers and one did can be helpful to others.

That’s sales though. What about promotion?

Polymer is an iOS game that recently saw success. The person behind the game explored some promotional services to get the game on people’s mobiles and the results are interesting. An analysis of the game’s promotion is worth reading because it covers not only which promotion service worked best but it also goes into how Polymer changed based on player feedback.

To fix this problem, I have decided to switch to charging $2.99 with just cosmetic IAP’s instead of charging $1.99 with optional gameplay IAP’s. This is what I plan to do from now on. I do not believe that gameplay IAP’s are evil in any way, or that they are wrong. They work for many games and are clearly very successful. But unless something goes terribly wrong, I just want to make premium games without any possible way someone could see my game design as corrupted.

Predict the Future Using the Web

In the Foundation series author Isaac Asimov created the concept of Psychohistory which is the notion of using history to predict the future. This fictional science allows leaders to plan for the future in great detail as long as people (at large) are unaware of Psychohistory and that the number of people being studied is incredibly large.

Essentially, Psychohistory uses math, trend analysis, and systems thinking to work. All of those core necessities exist today and we’re already beginning to see companies try to emulate Psychohistory.

Presently there are 7 billion people on the planet and many of them are creating information. Collating and sifting through this information can be hard and overly complex, let alone knowing where to look. An online service, Recorded Future uses publicly accessible information on the web for its predictive power.

Right now the site seems to be good at collecting information and letting people play with it, but its predictive powers are essentially untested. Which raises an interesting question: how long must a tool like this be accurate for and in what fields for it to have credibility? Still, it should give you a strong idea of what the future holds for what you’re looking into.

What Recoded Future is doing is essentially cliodynamics which is a relatively new study that is similar to Asimov’s Pyschohistory. Wikipedia describes the concept: “Cliodynamics practitioners attempt to come to with mathematical models of history to explain “big history” – things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse.”

There is even a journal dedicated to cliodynamics aptly named Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History. The journal is open, wholly online, and free; they are accepting submissions to the journal if you’re interested.

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